Economist editor provides early glimpse of 2010

You may know The Economist’s “World In…” series, a special issue of the respected publication that lays out what to expect in the new year as the old one winds down. Global circulation now stands at over a million readers, the vast majority of which are well educated and highly influential. Thus The World In has become a bit of a playbook for the great and the good.

Every September The Economist invites a handful of advertisers to a sneak peak at what editor Dan Franklin is planning. Fresh from my early morning outing to Economist Tower, here’s an overview of what Franklin’s starting to glimpse in his crystal ball.

Certain issues are going to be hot all year. The economy, of course, leads the way. Unfortunately, Economist editors aren’t brimming with cheerfulness, as they expect there to be a slow, painful recovery followed by another dip as government incentive money around the world starts to run out. Even with recovery, unemployment in the “rich world” is likely to remain high, with all its ensuing trauma on governments, society and the workplace.

On a related story, expect both the US and the UK to be obsessed with the weight of the debt they’ve accumulated firefighting the downturn, and the long-term effect on their national budgets.

Business writers will continue to look at the difference between developing markets and the “rich world”, noting that despite expectations about how we’re all linked by the global economy, developing countries have continued to steam ahead.

And just in case the conflict in the Middle East isn’t stressful enough, Franklin says to expect a lot of focus on, and tension between, the two Koreas. Back in Europe, Russia will continue to struggle with its disappointment that it can’t get past being a commodity-based economy, and Franklin fears we could see heightened tensions between Russia and the Ukraine.
For a month-by-month view, read on.

January

• Aftermath of Copenhagen conference; heightened focus on sustainability issues.
• UN launches “year of biodiversity”
• WEF Davos likely to see more than the usual puzzling over the future of capitalism- What to call the decade ahead? Likely a sense of optimism, and a pause for long-term planning and foresight, because a decade is turning
  

February

• Likely rise of pandemic issues as Northern hemisphere is in height of cold & flu season
• Focus on entertainment and leisure with the Vancouver Olympics and the Oscars
• The Chinese Year of the Tiger

March

• Once-a-decade census in the USA likely to trigger much debate and reportage on changing nature of America
• Spring meeting of G20 in S. Korea sparks discussion of global governance

April

• A likely focus on Iran, and what to do about its nuclear threat, in the run-up to non-proliferation treaty discussions
• Obama hosts a spring conference on nuclear disarmament
  

May

• The Shanghai World Expo expecting 70 million visitors; much discussion of who’ll be present and relations with China
• British election seems likely (last possible date is 3 June)

June

World Cup in South Africa lavishes attention on the continent and a whole range of African issues
July

• At some point this year (so we’ll say the middle) China is predicted to overtake Japan as the world’s second-biggest economy
• Expect companion pieces on China’s demographic shift; on the brink of having more dependents than workers (like the “rich world”), this has serious economic implications
  

August

Obama’s deadline for pulling combat troops out of Iraq to focus on “the good war” in Afghanistan; expect less “silly season” summer news slowdown in light of this very serious issue

September

End of 38-year US Space Shuttle programme prompts discussion of what’s next, relevance and cost of space exploration

October

• Brazil’s election. Term limits will force change in, and focus on, BRIC member that’s quietly and steadily performing
• 200 years of independence celebrations across a handful of Latin American countries around this time

November

US mid term elections will be the first real verdict on the performance of the Obama administration and its impact on the world

December

Expect obsessive reviews of the global economy and how it’s recovering from recession.

Let's hope that, despite Franklin's caution, the December coverage is positive.